Are mortgage rates finally coming down in 2026—and should you wait to buy or sell in Rhode Island?
Hey everyone, Jon Tetrault here with The Slocum Home Team at eXp Realty.
Two of the biggest questions we’re hearing right now across Rhode Island (especially Central RI) are:
“Are mortgage rates finally coming down in 2026?”
“Should I wait… or should I make a move now?”
Let’s cut through the noise and talk about what the data is actually telling us—so you can make a smart move based on numbers, not headlines.
The Big Picture: Where Mortgage Rates May Land in 2026
Here’s the headline you need to know:
Experts are NOT predicting a return to 3–4% mortgage rates in 2026.
Instead, what most economists and housing research groups are forecasting is stability—with rates settling into the low-6% range.
Across more than 20 major forecasts, the average 2026 mortgage rate projection is around 6.18%, with most estimates clustering between:
6.0%
6.4%
A few optimistic forecasts dip into the high-5% range, and a few cautious ones lean into the mid-6% range, but here’s the key point:
No credible source is calling for a dramatic drop.
This isn’t about rates “crashing.”
It’s about rates normalizing.
Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Falling Faster
A lot of people assume mortgage rates move directly with the Federal Reserve.
They don’t.
Mortgage rates are more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is influenced by inflation expectations, global events, and investor confidence.
Here are the big reasons rates may not fall quickly in 2026:
1. Inflation is cooler—but not fully defeated
Inflation has improved compared to recent years, but long-term interest rates typically don’t come down hard until inflation is clearly under control.
2. The economy may slow, but it’s not collapsing
If the economy isn’t in free fall, the Fed has less reason to aggressively cut rates.
3. Mortgage rates don’t follow the Fed in a straight line
Even if short-term interest rates drop, mortgage rates may not follow unless the bond market moves too.
✅ One possible bright spot:
The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage rates could tighten, which may give borrowers a little extra relief.
But again…
We’re talking gradual improvement, not fireworks.
What the 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast Means for Buyers in Rhode Island
If you’re buying in Rhode Island—whether it’s Warwick, Cranston, Johnston, Coventry, West Warwick, North Providence, or anywhere in Central RI—here’s the reality:
Low-6% rates are meaningfully better than what we saw in 2022, 2023, and parts of 2024.
That matters because even small changes in rate can impact affordability.
But here’s the biggest mindset shift for buyers heading into 2026:
Waiting for rates to drop isn’t a strategy anymore
Instead, winning buyers will focus on how they buy—not when they buy.
That means using tools like:
Seller credits to reduce out-of-pocket costs
Rate buydowns to lower monthly payments
Negotiation leverage (especially on homes that sit longer)
Smart loan structuring based on future refinance options
In 2026, the buyers who win aren’t always the ones who waited the longest.
They’re the ones who bought the smartest.
Strategy beats timing. Every time.
What the 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast Means for Sellers in Central RI
For sellers, stable low-6% rates can actually be good news.
Why?
Because when rates stop climbing and start leveling off, more homeowners begin to feel comfortable moving again.
That “golden handcuffs” effect—where sellers felt stuck because they had a 3% mortgage—starts to loosen.
Will inventory explode in Rhode Island? Probably not.
But we do expect:
More movement
A healthier flow of listings
A more balanced market
And here’s the most important part:
Pricing and presentation will matter more than ever
Buyers are still payment-conscious.
So in Rhode Island, homes that are:
✅ priced right
✅ staged or presented well
✅ marketed properly
✅ positioned correctly from Day 1
…will sell faster and for stronger terms.
Homes that chase the market (meaning they start too high and reduce later)?
They tend to sit—and that’s where sellers lose leverage.
This is not a frenzy market.
But it is a fair market—if you play it right.
The Wildcards: What Could Push Mortgage Rates Lower in 2026?
Could rates end up lower than the current projections?
Yes—but it would likely require something significant, such as:
a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown
faster inflation decline
major global disruption
another global pandemic 🙂
Those are possible…
…but right now, they’re not the most likely outcome.
The most realistic expectation for 2026 is:
steady rates
modest affordability improvements
a market driven by smart decision-making—not speculation
Final Take: What Rhode Island Buyers and Sellers Should Focus on in 2026
Here’s the real takeaway:
✅ Mortgage rates in 2026 will likely hover around 6%
✅ Affordability improves gradually
✅ Results come down to strategy—not guesswork
If you’re thinking about buying or selling in Rhode Island next year, don’t build your plan around the latest headline.
Build it around:
your monthly payment comfort zone
real inventory in your target towns
negotiation opportunities
creative financing tools
and a game plan that fits your timeline
If you want help mapping out the smartest way to make a move in Central Rhode Island, reach out.
Let’s build a strategy that fits your goals—without the stress and without the hype.
