Before you put your plans on hold, here’s what the data says, including when waiting makes sense.
Figures as of October 21, 2026.
Searches for “when will mortgage rates go down” hit their highest level of the past year in late September, and they’re still running well above where they were for most of the year.
If you’ve been wondering the same thing, you’re in good company.
Waiting can be the right call. But before you put your plans on hold, it helps to know what you’re actually waiting for, and what waiting could change.
Before you decide, ask yourself three things: when rates might come down, what a drop would really change, and what you can do right now. We’ll also cover when waiting is the right call.
Here are five things to know before you wait.
The rates
Lower rates may be a long wait
“Rates have to come down eventually, right?”
Eventually, maybe. Just not soon, according to the latest forecasts.
In its October 2026 housing forecast, Fannie Mae projects the 30-year fixed rate at 7.4% for the rest of 2026 and 7.5% through every quarter of 2027.
Forecasts aren’t promises. Rates can move quickly in either direction, which is exactly why planning around a hoped-for rate is risky.
Rates have also moved fast. According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the 30-year fixed rate rose from 6.66% on August 27 to 7.40% on October 8, seven straight weekly increases. For a buyer with a $2,000 monthly budget, that’s more than $22,000 less home.
$2,895 a year
Hypothetical illustration only, not a loan offer. Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan. Excludes taxes, insurance and fees.
If you plan to move in the next year, plan around today’s rates.
Waiting can still make sense if your timing is flexible and today’s payment doesn’t fit your budget.
You’re not waiting alone, and that’s the catch
“Can’t I just jump in when rates drop?”
You can. So can everyone else who’s waiting.
Google searches for “when will mortgage rates go down” hit their highest level of the past year in late September and are still running high. And NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index fell 7.3% in September to 66.0, the lowest reading since the index began in 2001.
That’s a lot of people on the sidelines. When rates do drop, many of them will come back at the same time, and buyers will be competing with each other again.
To be fair, lower rates would also bring more sellers back, so you’d have more homes to choose from. The tradeoff: more choice, but more competition for the best ones.
Fewer buyers means more room to negotiate. Waiting for lower rates can mean trading a quiet market for a crowded one.
Your home
Lower rates won’t raise your home’s value much
“If I wait for rates to drop, my home will be worth more.”
A little more, maybe. Probably not as much as you’re hoping.
Researchers at the New York Fed found that home values are far less sensitive to mortgage rates than standard economic models predict. Their estimate: a 1-point drop in rates raises home prices by about 2% at most.
It also happens slowly. An FHFA study found the effect on prices is small in the short run and builds gradually over time.
Hypothetical illustration only, not an appraisal or valuation. Upper-end estimate based on New York Fed research. Your local market may differ.
If you’re waiting to sell because you expect lower rates to raise your price, the gain is usually small and slow. The bigger change lower rates bring is more buyers. They also bring more sellers, so you’d be competing with them too.
The effect can be larger where homes are scarce and smaller where there’s plenty of new construction. Your local market matters more than the national average.
Your options
Buyers have more power right now than they’ve had in years
While many buyers wait, the ones still looking are in a strong position.
According to Redfin, home sellers nationally outnumbered buyers by 63% in September, the biggest gap in its records, which go back to 2013. And 22% of sellers with homes on the market cut their asking price in the four weeks ending October 11, the highest share in Redfin’s weekly data, which goes back to 2021.
Maybe. But nobody can promise prices will fall where you’re buying, or tell you when. Prices move neighborhood by neighborhood, not all at once.
If you want a lower price, negotiating for one now is often more reliable than waiting for the whole market to fall. These three local numbers show how much room you have:
Your agent can pull all three for the neighborhoods you’re watching.
Whether you’re buying your first home or your next luxury home, there’s more room to negotiate on price and terms than there was a year ago.
Your market may be different. Ask how homes like the one you want are actually selling nearby.
You can get a lower rate without waiting for one
Here’s the part most people don’t know: you can ask the seller to pay to lower your rate.
It’s called a rate buydown. The seller pays money upfront to your lender, and in return you get a lower interest rate. Some buydowns last for the life of the loan. Others lower the rate for the first year or two.
It’s becoming common. Redfin reported that sellers gave concessions in 44.7% of sales in August, the highest share for that month since at least 2020. Concessions include money toward closing costs, repairs, or rate buydowns.
There are limits. On a conventional loan, sellers can contribute 3% to 9% of the price, depending on your down payment. FHA loans allow up to 6%, and VA loans generally cap concessions at 4%. Money for a buydown counts toward these limits.
With a temporary buydown, you still have to qualify at the full rate.
In competitive markets, asking for help can make your offer less attractive. Your agent can tell you what’s realistic where you’re buying.
Hypothetical example only, not a loan offer or rate quote. Buydown pricing, limits on seller contributions, and loan rules vary by lender and loan type.
Instead of waiting for a lower rate, you may be able to negotiate for one. When you find a home you like, compare the full offer, not just the price.
Ask your lender to price out a buydown before you make an offer. It doesn’t fit every deal, and the same credit used another way can sometimes go further.
When waiting makes sense
Waiting can be the right decision if:
- Today’s payment doesn’t fit your budget, even with help from the seller.
- Your job, family, or timing is uncertain.
- You have a low rate and no real reason to move.
- You’re in a market where prices are clearly falling and you can wait comfortably.
Hypothetical example only. Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan with 20% down. Excludes taxes, insurance and fees. Rates and prices may not move the way you expect.
Know your options before you decide
You don’t have to guess. A useful look at your situation should show:
- 1What your monthly payment would be at today’s rates.
- 2What a lower rate would actually save you, month by month.
- 3How homes like the one you want (or the one you own) are selling near you.
- 4What you could negotiate for right now, including a rate buydown.
- Fannie Mae, Economic and Housing Forecast, October 2026 · 01
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Aug 27 and Oct 8, 2026 · 01
- Google Trends, “when will mortgage rates go down,” US, past 12 months · 02
- National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales, September 2026 (Oct 20, 2026) · 02
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, “The Housing Boom and the Decline in Mortgage Rates” (Sept 2021) · 03
- FHFA Working Paper 22-04, “Effects of Mortgage Interest Rates on House Price Appreciation” (Nov 2022) · 03
- Redfin, buyers vs. sellers, September 2026 (Oct 14, 2026) · 04
- Redfin, housing market update, four weeks ending Oct 11, 2026 · 04
- Redfin, seller concessions, August 2026 · 05
- Fannie Mae Selling Guide, Interested Party Contributions · 05
- HUD, FHA Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1 · 05
- VA, Lenders Handbook (Pamphlet 26-7) · 05
